Greenwich Real Estate Market Explained

Pain From U.S. Housing Slump Is Likely To Linger, but Some Say Worst May Be Past

By JAMES R. HAGERTY Wall Street Journal

Just when the gloomier pundits were starting to enjoy the housing slump, optimists are piping up to declare it could be almost over.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose interest-rate cuts helped create what he once called "froth" in house prices, said in a speech last week that he detected "early signs of stabilization" in the housing market. Some Wall Street economists also are saying the worst may be behind us.

Not so fast, replies Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., a Valhalla, N.Y., research firm: "It's going to get worse before it gets better."

Both camps are making valid points. The maximum impact of falling home construction may have hit the U.S. economy in the third quarter, some economists say. But that doesn't mean the housing market is on the verge of a miracle recovery. Construction is expected to fall further as builders struggle to shed a glut of unsold homes. And many economists expect house and condominium prices to continue falling for at least an additional six months to a year in parts of the nation where speculators went wild.

For now, the consensus among economists is that the housing downturn will remain a drag on the economy but probably won't sink the U.S. into a recession next year. Even Mr. Shepherdson, among the most bearish, believes the U.S. has a 60% chance of averting a recession in 2007. In any case, the weak housing market will remain painful for speculators who loaded up on credit to buy near the top -- and for millions of people working in housing-related industries. Just last week, Countrywide Financial, the U.S.'s largest mortgage lender, announced plans to shed about 2,500 jobs, or 4.5% of the company's total.

Largely because residential investment dropped at an annual rate of 17%, inflation-adjusted economic growth in the U.S. slowed to a feeble rate of 1.6% in the third quarter, according to an estimate released by the Commerce Department. Without that drop in residential building, economists said, the growth rate would have been about 2.7%.

After the third-quarter carnage, expect "some gradual improvement from here," says Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America in New York. He expects residential construction to decline at an annual rate of 13% in the current quarter, 5% in next year's first quarter and 2.2% in the second quarter before starting to grow again. Mr. Shepherdson disagrees, arguing that the drop in construction will accelerate before the market regains balance.

Offsetting the housing damage are several positives. Gasoline prices and mortgage interest rates have fallen in recent months. The stock-market rally has made some people feel richer, even as those who trust only in real estate feel poorer. And job growth, though unspectacular, continues at a "solid" pace, says Scott Anderson, an economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis.

With home prices flat to lower in much of the country, Americans already have less ability to tap their home equity to finance spending. But it is unclear how much effect that will have on consumer spending. Some economists believe that rising wages, the stock-market rally and lower energy costs will be enough to keep Americans loading their shopping carts with iPods and flat-screen TVs.

Mr. Greenspan sees hope in the rate of applications for home-purchase mortgages. After falling in the second half of 2005 and earlier this year, they have leveled off in recent weeks.

Some of the optimists' arguments are dubious. To bolster its position that the housing market is stabilizing, the National Association of Realtors last week trumpeted a 2.4% decline during September in the number of previously occupied homes offered for sale through multiple-listing services. But the Realtors' news release didn't mention that listings almost always decline in September, when the back-to-school season means fewer people are moving. Over the past 20 years, listings have declined an average of 3.4% in September, says Ivy Zelman, a Cleveland-based housing analyst for Credit Suisse.

Ms. Zelman, who last year correctly predicted a plunge in home-builder share prices, thinks investors who now are bidding those prices back up are way too early. Sales of new homes are unlikely to start rising again before early 2008, she says. Meanwhile, "land is going down in value daily," she says.

Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR in New York, is more upbeat but still thinks home prices will "stagnate" on a nationwide basis for several years, as rises in parts of the country are offset by continued declines elsewhere. After the unusually steep surge in home prices during the first half of this decade, he says, it will take time for incomes to catch up again with housing costs.

Greenwich Real Estate Market Explained

U.S. Economy Will Grow Slowly and Not Sink into Recession, Conference Board Reports

Varied economic indicators produced by The Conference Board are now pointing to slow growth ahead in the U.S., but not a recession, according to an analysis released yesterday by The Conference Board, the global research and business membership organization.

"The challenge for both the Federal Reserve Board and the U.S. economy is that this period of sub-par growth is likely to have little impact on inflation and short-term interest rates," says Gail D. Fosler, executive vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board. Her analysis appears in “StraightTalk,” a newsletter designed exclusively for members of The Conference Board's global business network. "Rather than coming down, they are likely to remain high for an extended period or even go up."

Over the past three months, The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators has turned down relative to its level six months ago for the first time in this expansion.

"While this signal is not particularly alarming, since the downturn is still rather modest, it does suggest that the economic cycle is more mature than is generally presumed," says Fosler. "Although such downturns do occur, they usually happen toward the end of the economic cycle." The current downturn is still in the range of the 1995 slowdown rather than the sharper declines before the 1990 and 2001 recessions.

The rate of change in the leading index is as important as its level. The LEI may dip into negative territory, but the decline is likely to be modest or brief. The key element is not only the level of the index, but the magnitude and duration of its decline. According to both of these indicators, the LEI is now signaling a downturn—not a recession.

The Fed Is in a Pickle

The Federal Reserve Board is currently operating with little leeway. The current topline Consumer Price Index is rising above a 4 percent annual rate, which is the highest inflation rate in over 15 years. Core CPI is running at about 2.5 percent, which is on a par with the rate that preceded the 2001 recession, and appears to be moving up to the 3 percent inflation rates of the mid-1990s.

"Despite the financial market's enthusiasm for the Fed's restraint in August, it is hard to believe that the Fed will not have to continue to raise the Fed funds rate in the face of these inflation pressures," says Fosler. "Before the Fed can actually cut rates, an event or shock of a sufficient magnitude to reverse the currently entrenched optimism in commodity markets will have to occur."

The next several months bear watching. Earlier, the Fed's tightening had little or no impact and it appeared that the U.S. economy might be reaccelerating after the shock from Hurricane Katrina in the fourth quarter. The deceleration in the economy is clearer now that consumer and investment spending and the housing and employment sectors are beginning to weaken. Over the past two years, the financial indicators in the LEI have taken the U.S. economy toward lower ground and the nonfinancial indicators are now following suit.

Capital Goods Markets Are Weakening

One of the biggest disconnects in the U.S. economy has been between the rapid growth in the capital goods and manufacturing sectors and the systemic weakness of the consumer sector. The consumer goods sector, which was propped up by low interest rates during 2000-2002, never faced the traditional recession challenge. Outside of housing investment, the consumer sector never recovered either. While consumer spending has remained in the 3-4 percent range, the major benefactor has been consumer-related imports. Domestic consumer goods orders on average have not grown at all over the past four years.

The capital goods sector has been the other overwhelming economic driver during this cycle. The acceleration in nondefense capital goods orders during this cycle dwarfs past investment booms -- even those of the tech "bubble" of the late 1990s. The year-to-year growth in capital goods orders peaked at about 30 percent late last year. This growth is the result of what has been, until very recently, rapid growth in domestic infrastructure, housing, technology, and capital goods investment, as well as a boom in investment in other parts of the world -- especially emerging markets -- which is reflected in the rapid growth in export orders. Exports of capital goods have been rising at a 13 percent annual rate over the past year.

But recently, the capital goods sector appears to be slowing. Besides the slowdown in capital investment in the second quarter Gross Domestic Product, there has been a sharp drop in capital goods orders overall.

Despite a bounce back in August from July's dip, the slowdown over the last several months in the Institute of Supply Management export orders index, which is generally a good leading indicator of export orders, is a matter of even greater concern. The decline in the short-term trend of this index suggests that external global demand for capital goods may be slowing. Vendor performance, as measured by the percentage of companies reporting slower deliveries, is still relatively high (above 50 percent).

Where Will Profits Go?

Corporate profitability, which is an important long-lead indicator of the business cycle, is making stunning gains. When corporate profits are high, investment usually grows rapidly and businesses spend more freely on travel, marketing, and other general administrative expenses. Hiring rises and, equally important, so does liquidity.

"What is clear is that companies have been spending their cash flow freely through investments and stock buybacks and increased dividends," adds Fosler. "Companies still appear relatively liquid, but the financing gap is now in territory that bears vigilance."